Updates
Back to News
Ukraine’s Future: Challenges and Opportunities
AMERICAN FRIENDS OF BUCERIUS & AMERICAN COUNCIL ON GERMANY
TRANSATLANTIC GLOBAL AGENDA
Ambassador Paula J. Dobriansky: “Ukraine’s Future: Challenges and Opportunities”
September 9th, 2014, 12-2 pm, Alston + Bird LLP, New York, NY
On September 9th, 2014, Ambassador Paula Dobriansky presented ‘Ukraine’s Future: Challenges and Opportunities’ as part of the Transatlantic Global Agenda jointly hosted by the American Friends of Bucerius and the American Council on Germany at Alston + Bird LLP in New York City. Ambassador Dobriansky is an American foreign policy expert and specialist in the areas of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, particularly in political-military affairs. She is a Senior Fellow at the Harvard JFK Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs.
The main argument of Ambassador Dobriansky’s remarks focused on five points, the first of which was to find an answer to the question of why Ukraine is important. Ukraine, a country of roughly 48 million people, is located in Eastern Europe, at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, giving the country a unique geographical strategic importance. According to Ambassador Dobriansky, Ukraine is also important both historically and politically. In particular, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994 for security assurances as well as protection of its territorial integrity and sovereignty under the Budapest Memorandum. This treaty solidified the United States’, as well as the United Kingdom’s, obligation to protect Ukraine, especially in the onset of the 2014 Crimean crisis.
Her second point centered on the need to evaluate the objectives of Russian President Vladimir Putin. On March 18th, in a speech now being labeled by some Russian newspapers as the “Fulton Speech of the East,” Putin called for the protection of Russians with an increased focus on Ukraine, and articulated how Western values are not compatible in the East. Putin laments the dismemberment of the Soviet Union and emphasizes a need to bring together like-minded countries. From this speech, it is evident that Putin’s objectives supersede Russia’s objectives. “Putinism,” as it has been coined, pushes for a relatively weak Ukraine with little to no financial burden being placed on Russia. Forcing a quasi-federalist system on Ukraine will give Russia leverage in the country’s future because Putin will possess a strong political influence in the region.
In Ambassador Dobriansky’s opinion, the impact of a military alliance on how to handle the situation in Ukraine has both positive and negative implications for the members of NATO. It is true that the alliance will reenergize the focus of NATO by highlighting a commitment on 2% of burden sharing among its members. Furthermore, there is a chance to reemphasize Article V, which details NATO’s collective security agreement. However, a heavy Russian influence still exists on the ground in Ukraine and Putin has perceived acceptance of his actions due to the hesitation of NATO members to act.
Ambassador Dobriansky also raised the question of what can be done in Ukraine. Many of the countries involved have already tried to engage with Putin. Unfortunately, these attempts have not affected the situation at hand. Ambassador Dobriansky pointed out that stronger actions needed to be taken: the United States and Europe must look at both the financial and energy sectors and take necessary punitive efforts through sectoral sanctions. In doing so, Europe as a whole is open to greater opportunities to shift away from its dependence on Russian energy.
Her last point made a distinction between the challenges and the opportunities associated with helping Ukraine. The country is in poor economic conditions and corruption is rampant. To have such instability in the “neighborhood” will ultimately hurt the countries of Europe. There is an opportunity with Ukraine for NATO to step forward and project a strong voice, coupled with strong actions. It is important to reassert western leadership. Europe and the United States should work strongly and actively together to establish a Friends of Ukraine taskforce aimed at providing actual help to the people of Ukraine in both the economic and political spheres. This is especially critical, as it will also bolster the United States’ transatlantic relationships.
During the ensuing Q&A session, the major debate focused on the idea of who had “won” the battle in Crimea. The response to the unlawful annexation of Crimea is a non-recognition policy; comparable to the one the U.S. maintained vis-à-vis the Baltic States during the Soviet period.
The Transatlantic Global Agenda
The Transatlantic Global Agenda hosted by American Friends of Bucerius in partnership with the American Council on Germany, and supported by Alston & Bird LLP, acknowledges the wide range of issues that impact both Germany and the United States. Through discussions, this series aims to provide leaders in foreign policy with the opportunity to exchange ideas and share expertise.
J. Meyer