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Event Summary: Ali Aslan, “One Woman to Rule Them All? The German Election and Its Impact on Europe”

American Friends of Bucerius and The American Council on Germany hosted Ali Aslan, Talk Show Host for Quadriliga on Deutsche Welle TV, as part of the 2013 Transatlantic Global Agenda Series on November 18th, 2013.

Germany holds greater prominence in Europe than ever before in post-WWII history. While past German elections usually have not garnered much attention outside the country’s borders, all eyes were on Germany during its recent election in September 2013. The Eurocrisis, coupled with the NSA scandal, brought a lot of focus on the country and on newly re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel.

As elections go, it was a rather subdued affair, with minimal campaigning, Mr. Aslan said. And despite so much being at stake, voter turnout was only slightly higher than what was recorded for the last election. But while Ms. Merkel won re-election, there were troubling signs for the future of the EU. For example, an ultraconservative and Euro-skeptic party, the AFD (Alternative für Deutschland), just barely missed the 5% threshold of votes, showing there is a lot of potential for politicians to tap into discontent over the way Germany’s leaders have dealt with the Eurocrisis.

Many in Europe feel that Germany is not living up to its responsibilities, while many Germans feel the country already has done too much. This outside vs. inside discrepancy is not an easy minefield for Chancellor Merkel to navigate. Although Germany is not comfortable taking the lead because of the weight of history, its strategies must shift, as now much of Europe is calling for German leadership, Mr. Aslan said.

It is a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation, though. If Germany puts its foot down and  calls for Greece and Italy to abide by austerity measures, for instance, there is likely to be an uproar that Germany is trying to dictate how people should live. But if Germany doesn’t lead the way, there is likely to be criticism that it is unwilling to step up to its responsibilities as a strong European country.

The “checkbook diplomacy” that has been practiced in the past is no longer valid for the future, and Merkel will need to rethink her strategy, said Mr. Aslan. Despite the chancellor’s general popularity, she has also been criticized for her leadership style. She has a tendency to let things run their course before making a decision. This was illustrated well during the first NSA scandal when she was fairly passive in her response. She stated that while she didn’t yet know the facts, she trusted her US allies did not break any laws. While Merkel’s unemotional and unimpulsive character generally suits many Germans, voters who greatly value personal privacy still would have liked her to have been more outraged at NSA spying. So far Chancellor Merkel has not shown that she will make a decision that will cost her political capital and credibility.

In order to save both the Euro and the European Union there will need to be more of an integrated Europe, not less. This is a tough sell for Merkel, Mr. Aslan said. She knows this is an unpopular subject in Germany and so she has been flip-flopping on critical issues like banking unions and Eurobonds. Adding to the unpopularity of the “more Europe” stance is the fact that the younger generation has grown accustomed to the many privileges of the EU, and therefore devalues them. To them, the original need for the Eurozone has become elusive. The Eurocrisis has also introduced more issues which complicate matters, such as an increase in nationalism and the rise of fascist parties, two trends which run counter to what the EU is trying to do.

What is being lost among all the focus on the EU, is that Germany and Merkel are grappling with domestic issues as well. While the economy is doing well and unemployment is low, the country is facing severe demographic challenges, such as a rapidly aging society and a low birth rate. There is a need to recruit skilled labor from abroad – a fact which is only slowly dawning on the political leadership in Germany. Germany is in a talent battle with China, the US, the UK and Canada, but the country’s policymakers have not fully grasped that it will be difficult to encourage people to move to Germany. One major roadblock for those looking to move to Germany is the need to learn German, a hurdle that does not need to be overcome in many other countries which adopt English as the main language of business. Additionally, Germany presents many bureaucratic hurdles for internationals working in the country. Changes will be needed for Germany to attract needed foreign talent.

Another big domestic challenge Merkel must deal with is energy. After Fukushima, the chancellor did a complete turnaround on energy policy. Although she previously backed nuclear energy as the way forward, the 2011 disaster and meltdown in Fukushima made her change her mind. However, the transition from nuclear to renewable energy hasn’t been thought through, and is encountering major problems.

In her third term, Chancellor Merkel will be working on her legacy and has a chance to shape or shake up Germany and Europe. The big question is if she will change her leadership style. So far it seems she has no future vision, only a “saving today” style of politics. It remains to be seen if she will continue her “wait-and-see” style of politics or seize her third term to adopt a more proactive approach, particularly vis-a-vis Europe.

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