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Event Recap: “Back to the Future: the Ukraine Crisis is Germany’s Biggest Foreign Policy Challenge since the Cold War”
AMERICAN FRIENDS OF BUCERIUS TRANSATLANTIC GLOBAL AGENDA
Alexander Privitera: “Back to the Future: Ukraine Crisis is Germany’s Biggest Foreign Policy Challenge since the Cold War”
April 8th, 2014, 12-2pm, Alston + Bird LLP, New York, NY
A Senior Fellow and Director of the Business and Economics Program at AICGS, Alexander Privitera focuses primarily on Germany’s European policies and their impact on relations between the United States and Europe. On April 8th, he joined the Transatlantic Global Agenda discussion series and presented his views on Germany’s role in handling the current Ukraine crisis. This, according to Privitera, is the biggest foreign policy challenge Germany has had to face since the Cold War.
Privitera began his talk by pointing out that only a short while ago, at the beginning of April, it looked like the precarious situation in Ukraine was changing for the better, and a new phase of exploring diplomatic solutions was beginning. But then pro-Russian protestors seized government buildings in the east of Ukraine on Monday, April 7th, resulting in a high-risk situation with separatists and security officials at the brink of an armed conflict.
In order to stave off any such development, NATO Secretary General Rasmussen proposed sending NATO troops to NATO countries bordering Russia. However, rather than resorting to such military action, German chancellor Angela Merkel is pursuing a strategy of de-escalation. Privitera emphasized that Merkel believes she will gain more leverage by containing the conflict through diplomacy and economic sanctions.
According to Privitera, the current consensus among the Western administrations is to accept Crimea as lost and support Ukraine in reestablishing its government, institutions, and economy. Privitera also noted that if Ukraine is not stabilized, it could become easy prey for Russia, even without a military invasion. Therefore, the goal must be to avoid Ukraine becoming a ‘failed state’, which Privitera defines as a state where corruption, transitional institutions, and lack of governmental control is prevalent. In addition, the aim should be to turn Ukraine into a ‘success story’. Privitera pointed out that 15 years ago, Ukraine had the same economic potential as Poland, but chose to take a different path and remain in the Kremlin’s sphere of influence. Despite forgoing the year-long attempts at a partnership by the EU, culminating in President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal in late 2013 to sign a pact at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Privitera still believes that Ukraine could reverse the course it has taken thus far.
Essentially, the political future of Ukraine will be determined by how the West decides to deal with Russia’s involvement. Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Germany’s approach towards Russia has been one of dialogue and openness, with Russia being considered a ‘strategic partner’ in economic and political matters. However, this dialogue, or the ‘path to modernization’ as the German Social Democrats call it, is failing. This has become evident in Merkel and Putin’s increasingly chilly relationship. According to Privitera, Russia’s understanding of ‘modernization’ means having the ‘modern’ means to pursue old-fashioned goals; for Germany it implies modernizing society. Privitera fears that if the dialogue cannot be maintained, serious consequences may be the result.
So where do we go from here? The relationship between Merkel and Putin is crucial in this matter. According to Privitera, Merkel understands the Russian ‘soul’, which explains her persistence in continuing an open dialogue. But Merkel and Putin’s respective interpretations of the current situation are based on their diverging experience at the end of the Cold War: while Merkel is a product of that era, Putin was burning KGB documents in Dresden when the wall fell. Putin seems to blame the West for the subsequent fall of the Soviet Union, and Privitera believes that he still obsesses about these events and is trying to reverse the historical process.
The West, and in particular the EU, needs to take a unified approach towards Putin, in order to succeed in de-escalating the situation. However, based on the EU’s management of the debt crisis, Putin may have come to the conclusion that the EU is hopelessly divided by jealousy and obsessions of national sovereignty. In combination with the fairly recent NSA scandal, Privitera noted that there is enough material for Putin to have gained a justifiable, albeit slightly distorted, interpretation of the developments in Europe. This interpretation may have led Putin to the assumption that his actions will not severely impact bi-lateral relationships.
Therefore, the US and the EU are considering economic sanctions as the next step in order to prevent any further escalation. Germany has especially strong economic ties to Russia, although its importance should not be overrated. He pointed out that even though Germany receives a third of its oil supply from Russia, oil and gas only make up for a fraction of what Germany’s economy demands. In line with the German shift to renewable energies, the relevance of fossil fuels in Germany has decreased. Furthermore, economic representatives such as Joe Kaeser, the CEO of the Siemens AG, are confident that economic sanctions against Russia and their consequences for Germany would be bearable, even though an alternative solution would be preferred.
So will economic sanctions against Russia be the next step? While Germany, with an economy able to handle potential fallouts, is open to the idea, other European countries are not convinced. Privitera’s native country Italy, for example, is very hesitant to expose its slowly recovering economy to any external shock. In addition, Italy also resents some of the other EU members for not having addressed recent Italian emergencies, such as the increase of African refugees at its southern borders. Taking all this into account, a display of unity towards Putin may prove difficult. Moreover, the difficulty in agreeing on economic sanctions lies in the fact that the specifics remain vague. While this gives politicians some leeway in their actions, a threshold for sanctions, as well as detailed measures, will have to be established. Privitera expects that the 28 member countries may eventually come to some compromise, the question will be at what cost.
As the European Union continues to struggle to find unity in its approach towards Russia, the situation in Ukraine has certainly helped smooth the transatlantic relationship between the US and Germany. While the NSA scandal is still a relevant issue, Obama and Merkel have a good enough working relationship to align their priorities in order to resolve the crisis quickly. Important global challenges will need to be addressed in the near future, such as the situations in Syria and Iran, and for that Russia is still needed as a crucial ‘strategic partner’. Whether this stays that way may very well depend on the development of the crisis in Ukraine and how the West’s attitude towards Russia develops. Privitera noted that the early presidential elections in Ukraine on May 25th will soon reveal whether Russia’s hopes for a destabilized Ukraine or the West’s implementation of de-escalation strategies and support will be the more likely outcome.
The Transatlantic Global Agenda
A broad range of issues impact both Germany and the United States of America.
The Transatlantic Global Agenda, a discussion series hosted jointly by American Friends of Bucerius and the American Council on Germany and supported by Alston & Bird LLP, acknowledges this by giving leads in the field of foreign policy the opportunity to exchange ideas and effectively share expertise.